Government affairs

The 2018 midterm elections are shaping up to be an interesting contest with at least 54 open House seats up for grabs on November 6 along with four open Senate seats. A majority of these come from a near record number of retirements (post-World War II, only 1992 had more) while the remainder come from lawmakers seeking higher office. All told, and including those members who are leaving to run for another office, there will be 17 open House seats vacated by Democrats, 37 by Republicans, and three seats by Senate Republicans.

Of particular importance to letter carriers and federal employees, who are under the jurisdiction of the House Oversight and Government Reform (OGR) Committee, Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) announced in late January that he too will retire at the end of the year. Chairman Gowdy becomes the ninth Republican chairman of a congressional committee to decide to leave Congress at the end of this session. Currently, there are not many OGR Republicans interested in taking the gavel as Chairman, which will make for interesting discussions in the coming months.

The midterm elections are historically tough for the party of the President in power. Incumbents tend to have an advantage over newcomers, and sitting chairs enjoy an even bigger advantage, but nothing is a guarantee in congressional Washington anymore.

As of press and according to the independent, non-partisan Cook Political Report, here’s how the open House races breakdown:

 

Solid Democrat 11 D	Likely/Lean D 3 D/7 R	Toss Up 3 D/3 R	Likely/Lean R 4 R	Solid Republican 23 R
CO-2 Polis	AZ-2 aMcSally	MI-11 Trott	KS-2 Jenkins	AZ-8 Franks	SD- At Large Noem
HI-1 Hanabusa	AZ-9 Sinema	MN-1 Walz	NM-2 Pearce	FL-17 Rooney	TN-2 Duncan
IL- 4 Gutierrez	CA-39 Royce	MN-8 Nolan	OH-16 Renacci	ID-1 Labrador	TN-6 Black
MA-3 Tsongas	CA-49 Issa	NJ-11 Frelinghuysen	TX-21 Smith	IN-4 Rokita	TN-7 Blackburn
MD-6 Delaney	FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen	NV-3 Rosen		IN-6 Messer	TX-2 Poe
MI-9 Levin	NH- 1 Shea-Porter	WA-8 Reichert		MS 3 Harper	TX-3 Johnson
MI-13 Conyers	NJ-2 LoBiondo			ND-At Large Cramer	TX-5 Hersarling
NM- 1 Lujan Grisham	NV-4 Kihuen			OH-12 Tiberi	TX-6 Barton
PA-1 Brady	PA-7 Meehan			PA-11 Barletta	TX-27 Farenthold
TX-16 O’Rourke	PA-15 Dent			PA-18 Murphy	VA-6 Goodlatte
TX-29 Green				PA-9 Shuster	WV-3 Jenkins
				SC-4 Gowdy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In order to see a change in leadership in the House, Democrats would need to pick up at least 24 House seats to retake the majority from Republicans, who've had control of the House since 2011.

In the Senate, the numbers are tighter, but very much in Republicans’ favor. Democrats would need only two seats to shift the majority, but with 33 total seats up for re-election in 2018, only eight are held by Republicans, while Democrats (and two independents who caucus with them)  are defending 25 seats. Only about a dozen of the contests are expected to be competitive. Ten of those are held by Democrats while Republicans only have Sens. Dean Heller’s (R-NV) and Jeff Flake’s (R-AZ) seats to worry about at the moment. While anything can happen, especially in midterms, a Senate takeover may prove too difficult of a task for the minority party this cycle.

According to the independent, non-partisan Cook Political Report, here’s how the open Senate races breakdown:

Solid Democrat	Likely/Lean D	Toss Up 2 R	Likely/Lean R	Solid Republican 1 R
		AZ - Jeff Flake		UT - Orrin Hatch
		TN - Bob Corker

Will the possibility for a party swing, especially in the House, mean more openness to compromise or a digging in on partisanship for the rest of the 115^th Congress? It is hard to say. Regardless, let’s assume that at least 57 Members of Congress may be open to advancing NALC’s key issues before they move on in November. Take a look to see if your member is among those leaving and consider reaching out to see if they will help.